Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS64 KOHX 052347
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
647 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

- Strong to severe storms are possible across Middle Tennessee
  this afternoon and evening. Primary threats are damaging winds
  and large hail. The tornado and flooding threats are low.

- Rain comes to an end early Saturday, giving way to cooler
  temperatures this weekend.

- Next week will be dry with temperatures gradually heating each
  day back into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A cold front associated with an upper level low over the Great
Lakes is stretching from around Memphis northeast through
Portland. Thunderstorms have develop along this front mainly in
our southwest and just to our north over KY. MesoAnalysis shows
1500-2500 j/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front with 25-35 knots of
effective bulk shear and inverted V soundings. As thunderstorms
push to the east they will pose mainly a damaging wind threat for
areas mainly south and east of Nashville. Lapse rates could be
better but they are good enough to see some severe hail with any
of the more organized updrafts. The front and thunderstorms
should reach the Plateau between 8-10 PM. Surface CAPE will
quickly fall off behind the front and the severe threat for Middle
TN is expected to end by 11 PM - Midnight. The front will stall
out over the area overnight and we will see scattered showers and
elevated thunderstorms persist though the overnight. With
thunderstorm activity elevated overnight, severe weather is not
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

BLUF: Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
evening with the greatest severe threat likely between 4 to 10 PM.
The greatest threats will be damaging winds with gusts in excess
of 60 mph, large hail, and minor flooding. The tornado threat is
very low, but not zero.

Southwesterly flow continues to stream in warm, moist air this
morning ahead of a potent cold frontal passage, setting the stage
for an unstable atmosphere for strong to severe storms to fire in.
PWAT values have increased to 1.47" based off of this morning`s
sounding and dew point temperatures are well into the upper 60s.
Latest soundings shows a decent cap remains in place at this time,
limiting convection until later this afternoon. The trough axis
will work through the area today as a shortwave rotates around the
base of the trough. This looks to occur sometime this evening at
which point storm relative helicity values will increase, thus
increasing the tornado threat. Bulk shear values will increase to
near 40 kts with SRH values between 150-200 and mid-level lapse
rates close to 7 C/km. Soundings continue to show a large dew
point depression at the surface, yielding an inverted-V profile,
further supporting a damaging wind threat.

CAMs continue to favor the better severe parameters (higher SRH) being
along a line from the southwest up across the Cumberland Plateau,
lining up with the timing of the cold front. Greatest timing of
potential severe impacts will be sometime between 4 to 10 PM, give
or take an hour on either end. Regardless, if you`re in Middle TN
this evening and especially if you have outdoor plans, keep up
with the weather as it could get stormy fast!

Post-frontal showers and storms will continue through the overnight
hours, diminishing from west to east late Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be markedly cooler tomorrow with highs only
getting into the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Depending on how you look at it, it`s either unfortunate of
fortunate that dry and warming conditions are expected through the
long term. Though we will get some beneficial rain with tonight`s
storms, more prolonged drying is not good for our growing drought
conditions. A large area of high pressure building over the
southwest will grow through the week, pushing temperatures up into
the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the week. Rain chances are
slim to none through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Thunderstorms, some severe, will be in the BNA/MQY vicinity
through 05Z as a cold front passes through the area. Brief
cig/vsby impacts will occur at the terminals mostly from elevated
storms trailing the cold front. The front will shift winds from
WSW to NNW. CKV is already behind the front with no showers or
storms expected. The showers and storms will reach SRB and CSV
mainly 04Z-08Z.

After a break from the initial convection along the front, a
disturbance will bring showers and isolated thunder later on,
generally from 10Z-16Z. During this period, cigs/vsbys are
expected to be mainly MVFR. After 16Z, mainly VFR as drier air
arrive on NNW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  74  54  82 /  80  50   0   0
Clarksville    59  74  50  81 /  70  50   0   0
Crossville     62  71  49  73 /  70  70   0   0
Columbia       62  74  51  81 /  80  50   0   0
Cookeville     61  71  51  74 /  70  60   0   0
Jamestown      61  70  50  73 /  80  70   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  73  51  79 /  80  50   0   0
Murfreesboro   62  75  52  81 /  80  50   0   0
Waverly        57  73  50  81 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....13